The Leap Hour web site
So what would a leap hour look like?
Leap Seconds are a clever idea in theory, a wonderful solution when they were
proposed in the 60's, but a growing nuisance in practice today.
One way to avoid leap seconds is to wait until
your great-great-greatN-grandchildren [1] postpone 3,600 of them and then call it a
leap hour.
If you are near a cesium clock around midnight a thousand years from now,
I wonder if the last second of the last minute
of the first leap hour might look like this:
Notes:
- If we assume the current earth rotation rate error of about -2 ms / day (the
earth is a bit slow) and an earth deceleration rate of about -2 ms/day per
century (the earth is slowing),
it would take about 900 [2] years to accumulate a full hour of time error.
The error is half an hour about 600 years from now.
- Time error is the sum of accumulated time error due to initial frequency
offset and accumulated time error due to frequency drift:
TE = r T + ½ a T².
Now 2 milliseconds per day frequency error is 73 seconds per century.
And ½ times 2 milliseconds / day per century frequency drift squared
is 36.5 seconds per century². Solving the quadratic equation, an hour
of time error (3600 seconds) occurs for T = ~898 years. Of course take this
value with a grain of salt since the 2 ms / day and the 2 ms / day / century
frequency and frequency drift "constants" are
neither exact, nor constant, nor very accurately known. But it's probably somewhere between 500
and 1,000 years.
See Extrapolations
of the difference (TI - UT1) for details. Similarly, earth time and atomic
time will differ by half an hour ~609 years from now, around the year 2600.
You laugh, but there's an effort underway this decade to consider the idea of
getting rid of leap seconds (which occur somewhat irregularly once or twice a
year, or maybe every other year; except recently where we haven't had one for 5
years) and replacing them with one big leap hour sometime in the next thousand
years.
Return to LeapSecond.com home page.
Send comments or questions to tvb.
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